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Connected and Automated Vehicles

Cover of Future Vehicles Forecasts Update 2031
Future Vehicles Forecasts Update 2031
  • Publication no: AP-R654-21
  • ISBN: 978-1-922382-74-0
  • Published: 6 September 2021

This report is an addendum to the Austroads Future Vehicles 2030 report (AP-R623-20), published in June 2020. Future Vehicles 2030 included forecasts of sales and fleet penetration for eight vehicle technologies or uses, including Automated Driving, Connected Vehicles, Electric Vehicles.

This planned review of the forecasts considers new and emerging evidence in this fast-moving area. This update discontinues the previous forecast of For Hire With Driver. The forecast for Electric Vehicles and one forecast for Connected Vehicles are both extended through to 2031 without revision. The remaining forecast for Connected Vehicles and all four forecasts for Automated Vehicles have been revised as well as extended through to 2031. There is no change to the general approach to forecasting and the fleet penetration and technology adoption models used for this.

  • Summary
  • 1. Introduction
    • 1.1 Purpose
    • 1.2 Scope
    • 1.3 Methodology
  • 2. Consideration of Forecasts and Models
  • 3. Review of Model for Technology Adoption
    • 3.1 What was used in Future Vehicles 2030?
    • 3.2 Recent developments
    • 3.3 Continued use for Future Vehicles 2031
  • 4. Review of Model for Fleet Adoption
    • 4.1 What was used in Future Vehicles 2030?
    • 4.2 Recent developments
    • 4.3 Continued use for Future Vehicles 2031
  • 5. Review of Forecast for Active Safety Systems
    • 5.1 What was forecast in Future Vehicles 2030?
    • 5.2 Recent developments and discussion
    • 5.3 What adjustment has been made?
    • 5.4 Adjusted and extended forecast for C2 Embedded Mobile Connectivity
  • 6. Review of Forecasts for Highly Automated Driving
    • 6.1 What was forecast in Future Vehicles 2030?
    • 6.2 Recent developments and discussion
    • 6.3 What adjustment has been made?
    • 6.4 Updated forecast for A2 Conditional Automation
    • 6.5 Updated forecast for A4 Highly Automated Driving (Early ODDs)
    • 6.6 Updated forecast for A5 Highly Automated Driving (Broader ODDs)
    • 6.7 Updated forecast for all included Automated Driving types
  • 7. Review of Forecasts for Vehicle Connectivity
    • 7.1 What was forecast in Future Vehicles 2030?
    • 7.2 Recent developments and discussion
      • 7.2.1 Standards-based interoperable C-ITS
      • 7.2.2 Embedded mobile data connectivity
    • 7.3 What adjustment has been made?
    • 7.4 Updated forecast for C1 Interoperable C-ITS
    • 7.5 Extended forecast for C2 Embedded Connectivity
  • 8. Review of Forecast for Electric Vehicles
    • 8.1 What was forecast in Future Vehicles 2030?
    • 8.2 Recent developments
    • 8.3 Is a change to the forecast recommended?
    • 8.4 Forecast extended to 2031
  • 9. Previous Forecast for Shared-Use Vehicles
    • 9.1 What was forecast in Future Vehicles 2030?
    • 9.2 Recent developments and discussion
    • 9.3 Discontinuance of forecast
  • References
Related publications
Future Vehicles 2030
AP-R623-20
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