Asset management

Cover of Further Development of Probabilistic Road Deterioration Modelling: Pilot Application
Further Development of Probabilistic Road Deterioration Modelling: Pilot Application
  • Publication no: AP-T294-15
  • ISBN: 978-1-925294-40-8
  • Published: 7 May 2015

This report documents research to further develop probabilistic modelling work undertaken in 2012 and demonstrate the impact the variations in predictions of the main dependent variable, roughness, has on road agency costs (RAC) and vehicle operating costs (VOC) in a pavement life-cycle costing analysis.

This phase of work used a pilot application of a three road network with each road having different levels of traffic and pavement performance outcomes. The pilot study showed that the RAC estimates are highly sensitive to the percentile roughness estimates compared to the VOC estimates because during the pavement life-cycle costing analysis the roughness levels are contained to within 4 IRI by the intervention of rehabilitation.

Other related reports from this project are:

  • AP-T201-12 The Scoping and Development of Probabilistic Road Deterioration (RD) Models , 2012
  • AP-T257-13 Probabilistic Road Deterioration Model Development , 2013.
  • Summary
  • Contents
  • 1. Introduction
    • 1.1. Background
    • 1.2. Scope of the Report
  • 2. Probabilistic Modelling of Road Deterioration
    • 2.1. Terminology and Definitions
    • 2.2. Road Deterioration (RD) Models
    • 2.3. Roughness Model Predictions
      • 2.3.1. Roughness Predictions Based on Work in 2012
      • 2.3.2. Use of Roughness Predictions (Roads 1, 2 and 3)
  • 3. Pavement Life-cycle Costing Analysis
    • 3.1. General
    • 3.2. Road Agency and Road User Costs
      • 3.2.1. Road Agency Costs (RAC)
      • 3.2.2. Road User Costs (RUC)
    • 3.3. Analysis Results
      • 3.3.1. Pavement Conditions
      • 3.3.2. RAC and RUC
    • 3.4. Discussion
  • 4. Conclusions
    • 4.1. Objective
    • 4.2. Outcomes
  • References
  • Appendix A Probabilistic Prediction of Roughness Dependent Variable
  • A.1 Probabilistic Approach
  • A.1.1 Input Variable Distributions
  • A.1.2 Lognormal Distribution
  • A.1.3 Beta General Distribution
  • A.2 Modelling
  • A.2.1 General
  • A.2.2 Modelling with Random Pavement Age
  • A.2.3 Modelling with Incremental Pavement Ages
  • A.2.4 Modelling with Incremental Pavement Ages and Fixed Values for TMI and MESA
  • Appendix B Road User Costs (RUC)
  • B.1 RUC Equation