Asset Management

The work documented in this report demonstrates the use of existing Austroads deterministic road deterioration (RD) models in a probabilistic approach to estimate the possible predictions for the dependent variables of these models. This approach was adopted to address the issue of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of deterministic models which give a single prediction without any understanding of the potential for other prediction outcomes. The probabilistic approach uses probability distribution functions (PDFs) to define the observed variations of the independent variables which were then simulated by a Monte Carlo technique to give all the possible predictions for the dependent variables.