Asset management

Cover of Probabilistic Road Deterioration Model Development
Probabilistic Road Deterioration Model Development
  • Publication no: AP-T257-13
  • ISBN: 978-1-925037-29-6
  • Published: 21 November 2013

The work documented in this report demonstrates the use of existing Austroads deterministic road deterioration (RD) models in a probabilistic approach to estimate the possible predictions for the dependent variables of these models. This approach was adopted to address the issue of the uncertainty associated with the predictions of deterministic models which give a single prediction without any understanding of the potential for other prediction outcomes. The probabilistic approach uses probability distribution functions (PDFs) to define the observed variations of the independent variables which were then simulated by a Monte Carlo technique to give all the possible predictions for the dependent variables.

  • 1. Introduction
    • 1.1. Background
    • 1.2. Scope of the Report
  • 2. Road Deterioration Probabilistic Modelling
    • 2.1. Probabilistic Modelling Approach
    • 2.2. Road Deterioration Models
    • 2.3. Input Variable Distributions
      • 2.3.1. Lognormal Distribution
      • 2.3.2. Beta General Distribution
    • 2.4. Modelling
      • 2.4.1. General
      • 2.4.2. Modelling with Random Pavement Age
      • 2.4.3. Modelling with Incremental Pavement Ages
      • 2.4.4. Modelling with Incremental Pavement Ages and Fixed Values for TMI and MESA
  • 3. Discussion
    • 3.1. General
    • 3.2. Structural RD Models
    • 3.3. Functional RD Models
    • 3.4. Sensitivity Analysis
  • 4. Conclusions
    • 4.1. Future Work
  • References
  • Appendix A Input Distribution
  • A.1 Probability Distribution Function (PDF) Fitting for Structural Models
  • A.2 Probability Distribution Function (PDF) Fitting for Functional RD Models (Random Pavement Ages)