Asset Management
- Publication no: AP-T201-12
- ISBN: 978-1-921991-29-5
- Published: 16 May 2012
- PDF (free) Download
This report is a scoping document aimed at establishing how road deterioration (RD) models can be developed on a probabilistic basis. Deterministic RD models provide an average estimate to a future condition which is not necessarily likely to be achieved given the variability of pavement performance. A probabilistic approach can assign various probabilities to the future conditions of a pavement (the dependent variable). The report also considers the applicability of probabilistic RD model approaches to both a network and project level. A previous survey of practitioners, aimed at finding what type of RD models they wish to use in a pavement life-cycle costing context at a project level, found that most practitioners would consider using both probabilistic and deterministic RD models.
- 1. INTRODUCTION
- 1.1. Project Scope
- 2. REVIEW OF PROBABILISTIC MODELLING APPROACHES
- 2.1. Review of Probabilistic Approach
- 2.1.1. Survivor Curves
- 2.1.2. Markov Probabilistic Approach
- 2.1.3. Semi-Markov Probabilistic Approach
- 2.1.4. Continuous Probabilistic Approach
- 2.2. Probabilistic Approaches Used in Australasia
- 2.2.1. Markov and Semi-Markov Probabilistic Approaches
- 2.2.2. Probability of Defect Initiation and Unacceptable Deterioration Rates
- 2.2.3. Other Probability Approaches
- 3. CONCLUSIONS
- 3.1. General
- 3.1.1. Survivor Curves
- 3.1.2. Markov and Semi-Markov Approaches
- 3.1.3. Continuous Probability Functions
- 3.1.4. Other Probability Approaches
- 4. FUTURE WORKS
- 4.1. General
- 4.1.1. Next Step