Asset management

Cover of The Scoping and Development of Probabilistic Road Deterioration (RD) Models
The Scoping and Development of Probabilistic Road Deterioration (RD) Models
  • Publication no: AP-T201-12
  • ISBN: 978-1-921991-29-5
  • Published: 16 May 2012

This report is a scoping document aimed at establishing how road deterioration (RD) models can be developed on a probabilistic basis. Deterministic RD models provide an average estimate to a future condition which is not necessarily likely to be achieved given the variability of pavement performance. A probabilistic approach can assign various probabilities to the future conditions of a pavement (the dependent variable). The report also considers the applicability of probabilistic RD model approaches to both a network and project level. A previous survey of practitioners, aimed at finding what type of RD models they wish to use in a pavement life-cycle costing context at a project level, found that most practitioners would consider using both probabilistic and deterministic RD models.

  • 1. INTRODUCTION
    • 1.1. Project Scope
  • 2. REVIEW OF PROBABILISTIC MODELLING APPROACHES
    • 2.1. Review of Probabilistic Approach
      • 2.1.1. Survivor Curves
      • 2.1.2. Markov Probabilistic Approach
      • 2.1.3. Semi-Markov Probabilistic Approach
      • 2.1.4. Continuous Probabilistic Approach
    • 2.2. Probabilistic Approaches Used in Australasia
      • 2.2.1. Markov and Semi-Markov Probabilistic Approaches
      • 2.2.2. Probability of Defect Initiation and Unacceptable Deterioration Rates
      • 2.2.3. Other Probability Approaches
  • 3. CONCLUSIONS
    • 3.1. General
      • 3.1.1. Survivor Curves
      • 3.1.2. Markov and Semi-Markov Approaches
      • 3.1.3. Continuous Probability Functions
      • 3.1.4. Other Probability Approaches
  • 4. FUTURE WORKS
    • 4.1. General
      • 4.1.1. Next Step