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Cover of Predicting Structural Deterioration of Pavements at a Network Level: Interim Models
Predicting Structural Deterioration of Pavements at a Network Level: Interim Models
  • Publication no: AP-T159-10
  • ISBN: 978-1-921709-25-8
  • Published: 9 December 2010

Pavement performance data, in terms of Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) deflection, was collected from 71 test sections available from the LTPP/LTPPM sites and used to develop structural deterioration models for flexible asphalt and sealed unbound granular pavements. A total of 595 data samples were available from the monitoring period of six to 13 years. The network level interim structural deterioration models developed are intended to estimate the pavement/subgrade strength variable in predicting functional (roughness and rutting) deterioration and predict the change in pavement/subgrade strength with increasing pavement age.

  • 1. INTRODUCTION
    • 1.1. Background
    • 1.2. Scope of Report
  • 2. TEST SECTIONS
    • 2.1. LTPP and LTPPM Sections
      • 2.1.1. LTPP Sections
      • 2.1.2. LTPPM Sections
  • 3. DATA COLLECTION
    • 3.1. Deflection/Strength Data
      • 3.1.1. Estimation of Modified Structural Number, SNC
    • 3.2. Climate, Traffic and Inventory Data
      • 3.2.1. Climate Data
      • 3.2.2. Traffic Information
      • 3.2.3. Inventory Data
  • 4. MODEL DEVELOPMENT
    • 4.1. Variables
    • 4.2. Descriptive Statistics
      • 4.2.1. Deterioration Rates for Variables
      • 4.2.2. Review of the Deterioration Rates
      • 4.2.3. Interim Model Development
      • 4.2.4. Strength Ratio (SNCratio = SNCi/SNCo)
    • 4.3. Regression Analysis
      • 4.3.1. Review of Variables
      • 4.3.2. Model Development
      • 4.3.3. Model Significance Test – The Likelihood-Ratio Test (LRTEST)
      • 4.3.4. Model Features and Use
      • 4.3.5. Discussion of Structural Deterioration
  • 5. CONCLUSIONS
    • 5.1. Scope
    • 5.2. Findings
    • 5.3. Recommendation
  • REFERENCES
  • APPENDIX A WESTERN AUSTRALIAN (WA) NETWORKDATA
  • APPENDIX B LIST OF LTPP AND LTPPM INDIVIDUAL SECTIONS AND ANALYSIS RESULTS
  • APPENDIX C SNCRATIO TRENDS BY CLIMATIC FACTORAND PAVEMENT AGE
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